"In situations where the possible consequences are large, try to be as reasonable and rational as possible. When the consequences are small, let intuition take over."
Before diving into individual biases, understand the underlying systems that drive human behavior and decision-making.
The study of why humans consistently deviate from "rational" or "optimal" decisions. We are not perfectly logical actors; we are subject to emotion, impulsivity, and environmental "nudges."
System 1 is fast, instinctive, and emotional (handles 95% of daily activity). System 2 is slower and logical. Biases occur when System 2 accepts the easy, biased answer provided by System 1.
Big Data processes codify the past but cannot invent the future; they bake in past biases. Human decision-making possesses the unique virtue of being able to consciously break from the past.
Reforms should not be made until the reasoning behind the existing state of affairs is understood. If a fence exists, it was put there for a reason. Understand it before tearing it down.
A categorical repository of cognitive biases, logical fallacies, and heuristics. Select a module below to begin.
How we protect our self-image and overestimate our abilities.
Success in complex fields is often a matter of luck masquerading as skill. Beginner's Luck occurs when early success is misunderstood as advanced talent, creating dangerous overconfidence. True skill can only be claimed if success is repeated consistently across many different environments over time.
The cognitive blind spot that prevents us from seeing our own biases. We easily spot flawed thinking in others, yet we firmly believe our own thoughts are purely rational and objective. Overcoming it requires intellectual humility.
The misconception that venting your anger reduces stress. In reality, studies show that venting often increases aggressive behavior. By "blowing off steam," you keep the anger "on the stove," reinforcing the neural pathways for aggression.
Cognitive Dissonance is the mental pain we feel when actions don't match beliefs, often resolved by "reinterpreting" facts (sour grapes). Consistency Bias assumes we've always felt the way we do now, and Self-Serving Bias is taking credit for success but blaming failure on external factors.
"If the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail." The tendency to view the world through the narrow lens of our own specific expertise. We must build a "latticework of mental models" to combat this.
The surprising inability to transfer knowledge or logic from one field to another (e.g., a doctor who chain smokes). Our brains store lessons in silos.
The misconception that we can accurately estimate our own competence. The less you know about a domain, the more confident you tend to be, because you lack the expertise to even recognize your own ignorance.
Biases are symptoms of broader comfort zones. Jennifer Garvey Berger identifies five core Mindtraps that snag us.
Blinded to the real, complex story because we prefer a neat narrative.
Habit: Carry 3 different stories.
Ask: How is this person a hero?
It feels right, but it isn't. Our ego demands absolute certainty.
Habit: Listen to learn, not to win.
Ask: How could I be wrong?
Chasing consensus robs us of good ideas and masks conflict.
Habit: Disagree to expand.
Ask: Could conflict deepen us?
Trying to control the uncontrollable strips us of actual influence.
Habit: Experiment at the edges.
Ask: What can I help enable?
We stay shackled to who we are now, defending current identity.
Habit: Listen to learn from yourself.
Ask: Who do I want to be next?
You cannot escape these traps entirely; they are built into our biology. Build these four connections to scamper out when you fall in.
Making the world better gives a shortcut to decisions so you aren't swamped.
Treat your body as support. Ask: "What is my body feeling? Is it a mindtrap?"
Fullness of emotion is data. Unpick the braided rope of shame or gratitude.
Look at flaws with forgiveness, creating conditions to learn without judgment.